Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, is projected to secure no more than 38 per cent of votes in the Ayawaso East National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary, according to a final pre-election projection by Global InfoAnalytics.
The projection, released by the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, suggests that Baba Jamal faces a significant challenge in today’s primary, Saturday, February 7, 2026.
According to the data, Baba Jamal’s main contender, Hajia Amina Adam, widow of the late Member of Parliament for Ayawaso East, Mahama Naser Toure, is in a commanding lead. She is projected to secure about 54 per cent of the total votes cast, a margin expected to secure her victory in a single round of voting.
Mr Dankwah explained that Baba Jamal’s projected 38 per cent represents his highest possible performance even under the most favourable campaign conditions.
The analysis indicates that despite Baba Jamal’s extensive political experience and his recent return from Abuja to contest the seat, he has struggled to match the strong grassroots appeal enjoyed by Hajia Amina.
The poll also examined perceptions surrounding Hajia Amina’s decision to contest the seat following the passing of her husband. Findings show that an overwhelming majority of delegates support her candidature, with many viewing it as a continuation of her late husband’s political legacy.
According to Global InfoAnalytics, emotional connection, constituency familiarity, and established local networks have significantly strengthened Hajia Amina’s campaign, making it difficult for rivals to erode her support base.
While Baba Jamal is said to enjoy backing among some experienced party members and political elites due to his long service and national profile, the report suggests this has not translated into broad delegate support.
The projection carries a margin of error of 3.2 per cent. However, even at the narrowest margin, Baba Jamal is still expected to trail his main opponent by a double-digit gap.
The poll further suggests that the number of undecided delegates remains too small to significantly alter the outcome of the contest.
Voting is currently underway in the Ayawaso East constituency, with party officials expressing confidence in a peaceful and transparent electoral process. The winner of the primary will lead the NDC into the upcoming parliamentary election for the constituency.
