Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has reacted to the victory of Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed in the National Democratic Congress (NDC) parliamentary primary for the Ayawaso East Constituency, describing the outcome as a notable departure from his firm’s pre-primary projections.
Baba Jamal, who currently serves as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, won the primary held on Saturday, February 7, 2026, after polling 431 votes, representing 45 per cent of the total valid votes cast. His closest contender, Hajia Amina Adam, secured 399 votes, translating into 41 per cent.
Following the declaration of results by the Electoral Commission (EC), Mr Dankwah took to social media to present a post-election analysis comparing the final outcome with projections from Global Info Analytics’ Model 1.
In what many described as a light-hearted reaction, Mr Dankwah acknowledged that the predictions did not fully align with the results.
“In the just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East, I was handed a defeat, but I will not issue any statement regardless,” he wrote, before proceeding to explain the figures behind the projection.
According to him, Global Info Analytics’ Model 1 operated within a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. He noted that while some candidates’ performances fell within the expected range, others recorded significant deviations.
Mr Dankwah explained that Muhammed Ramni, who secured about nine per cent of the vote, performed within the projected margin of error, indicating that his result was consistent with expectations when the allowable deviation was considered.
He further stated that Dr Azindow and Najib Sani also delivered performances that largely aligned with the model’s predictions.
However, the biggest variations were recorded among the two leading contenders. Hajia Amina Adam, who was projected to obtain 50 per cent of the vote, ended with 41 per cent, representing an underperformance of nine percentage points and placing her six percentage points outside the model’s margin of error.
On the other hand, Baba Jamal, who was projected to secure 38 per cent — with a possible rise to 41 per cent within the error margin — exceeded expectations by polling 45 per cent, surpassing the model’s upper limit by four percentage points.
While highlighting the discrepancies, Mr Dankwah refrained from offering a definitive explanation for the outcome, instead inviting public interpretation of the results.
In a closing remark laced with sarcasm, he wrote, “It took to defeat science and data,” a comment widely interpreted as tongue-in-cheek rather than a formal allegation, as no evidence was presented to support any claim of inducement.
Baba Jamal’s victory now positions him as the NDC’s parliamentary candidate for the upcoming Ayawaso East by-election, where he is expected to contest for the constituency seat on behalf of the party.
